Kamala Harris regained the lead with 51% likely voter support to Donald Trump’s 47% in a poll released Sunday by ABC/Ipsos.
The poll released Friday from The New York Times/Siena College shows Kamala Harris and Donald Trump tied for the popular vote. Both candidates are projected to receive 48% (margin error 2.2) of the vote.
Prior to this, The Times reported Harris consistently leading the polls by 2-3 points since she replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee in August. Six other polls also found her in the lead, while at least three found Trump with the advantage.
The battle remains tight in the seven states that matter most. Poll site 270towin.com shows Harris and Trump nearly tied for Pennsylvania and Nevada, both with almost 48% support. Trump holds a 1% lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina while Harris is slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin.
On Friday, Harris campaigned in Arizona, with Beyonce speaking at her rally. They headed to Texas over the weekend. Harris urges voters, especially those in swing states, to vote early.
From Oct. 25-Oct. 30 Trump has rallies planned in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia.
Either candidate will need at least 270 electoral college votes to win.
For the most part, past election results have aligned with polling trends. However, cases like 2016 where Hillary Clinton lost the election to Donald Trump despite leading in the polls cast doubts on polling’s accuracy.
Still, it is important to remember that polls are not a forecast of victory but rather an estimate of the percentage that will go to each candidate.
Sage Creek AP Government and Politics teacher Cameron Dexter Torti, who recently led the school-wide mock election, believes in the purpose of polling.
“If you ask about 1,000 to 1,500 people a question, you get a sense of the national average, even though the nation is 345 million people,” Dexter Torti said.
Polling is based on the popular vote whereas who actually wins the election depends on the electoral college.
“Because each state essentially runs its own election and its own popular vote, you have to take each state’s individual popular vote and then essentially assign the points that a candidate should get by winning a state if they’re projected to win,” Dexter Torti said. “And so it’s not as easy as simply who has the most support. It’s about who has the most support in each state, and then who then has the states that add up to that 270.”
On election day, results will be reported almost immediately after the polls close.
“At least 45 to 48 of the states will be accurately predicted that day based on what hat comes in,” Dexter Torti said. “But they still do go through the process and count every single vote to make sure that it is correct.”
On Tuesday Nov. 5 polls for the general election will open at 7 a.m. and close around 8 p.m. It is recommended that mail in ballots are sent prior to Oct. 29. Those that missed the Oct. 21 voter registration deadline may register onsite on election day.
